TEXPAC Political Consultant Predicts One Million More Voters Than In 1996 And Long Bush Coattails In Texas

Tuesday, October 24, 2000

(Austin, Texas) The Eppstein Group, a Fort Worth based political polling and consulting firm, recognized for its accuracy in polling and predicting statewide voter turnout in Texas, is projecting a 54.97 percent statewide voter turnout (6,797,177 voters) for the upcoming November election.

Because voter registration in Texas has increased from 10,540,678 voters in 1996, to 12,365,235 voters who are eligible this November, The Eppstein Group's turnout prediction includes one million more Texas voters than four years ago.

"Some areas of Texas (mostly suburbs) will likely have turnout of 60 percent or higher, whereas other areas with historically low turnouts may experience less than 30 percent voter turnout," said John Shults, Vice President of The Eppstein Group.

Shults added that turnout in the early voting period may also be higher than in past elections because of strong interest in the Presidential debates. If early voting numbers stay strong, Shults predicted it would be offset by a lower percentage voting on election day.

Shults also noted that, compared to 10 years ago, the Texas Secretary of State today uses a more liberal method to count voter registration in Texas. This new method makes the 54.97 percent voter turnout prediction for the 2000 presidential election comparable to the Texas statewide turnout of 66.2 percent in 1988 when Governor Bush's father was elected President.

"Ten years ago, inactive voters (those who local voter registrars cannot locate) were not included in the total voter registration figure as they are today," said Shults. "Of the current 12 million voters in Texas, more than 2 million are inactive according to the most current records of the Secretary of State's office."

In the 1998 Texas gubernatorial election, The Eppstein Group's prediction of a 31 percent statewide voter turnout was only 1 percent off the actual statewide turnout of 32 percent. The then Secretary of State Al Gonzales commended the firm on its accuracy.

Shults is also predicting long Bush coattails this election.

"The main reason Bush did not have coattails in 1998 was because of the election's low turnout," Shults said. "But this year's increased voter turnout will benefit Republican candidates in closely contested down ballot races."

"It appears that those Texas candidates who stand proudly on Al Gore's presidential ship run the risk of sinking faster than the Titanic," mused Shults. "But because of the Texas heat, it won't be an iceberg that sinks them, it will be a Bush landslide."

Outside of Texas, Shults said he did not have enough information to make a precise national turnout prediction but estimated a sharp decline in voter participation for the country as a whole.

"I wouldn't be surprised if voter turnout nationally was around 40 percent," said Shults. "With a low national voter turnout, the presidential race will be more of a contest to win the electoral college than the popular vote."